About

• City’s revenue outlook continues to improve led by growing income taxes
• Detroit economy showing resilience amid projected national recession
• City-led efforts to bring good-paying jobs to Detroiters driving economic recovery and growth

On February 13, the City of Detroit held its regular biannual Revenue Estimating Conference to receive an update on the Detroit economic outlook and approve revised economic and revenue forecasts for the remainder of fiscal year 2023 and for fiscal years 2024 through 2027. State law requires the City to hold independent revenue conferences in September and February each fiscal year to set the total amount available for its annual budget and four-year financial plan.  

Revenue Outlook Remains Resilient 

The Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022-2027, previously released earlier in February, predicted that Detroit’s economy will continue growing at a steady pace, despite projections of a mild national recession in late 2023 to early 2024. Demand for good-paying blue-collar jobs, spurred by City-led efforts driving economic opportunity and growth for Detroiters, prove to be a major factor in the City’s economic resilience. Consequently, the City’s revenue outlook continues to improve despite economic challenges at the national level.  

In line with the economic outlook, the Revenue Conference has approved higher revenue estimates based on stronger projected income and utility tax collections. Updated forecasts show employment stability in key sectors, boosting income tax collections as wages continue to catch up to prices.  Stronger than expected internet gaming collections and elevated natural gas prices have offset weaker on-site gaming collections, increasing revenue expectations. All other revenues are expected to see stable but more modest growth.   

As with any economic and revenue forecast, there are potential risks to the estimates agreed to today, the largest being slower employment and wage growth should national economic trends and the monetary policy response prove more adverse.  Future gaming behavior at Detroit’s casinos, such as larger than projected internet gaming substitution effects, remain a risk as well. Conversely, additional development projects and labor force gains would help bolster revenue growth. Proposed increases in State Revenue Sharing and other funding in the State Budget provide potential upside to the forecast too.  

“Despite projections of a mild national recession, the Detroit economy has proven to be more resilient today supported by the administration’s growth and opportunity strategies. The revenue estimates are in part a direct reflection of that resiliency. As we navigate economic risks ahead, we will continue to provide fiscal stability through conservatively balanced budgets that protect Detroit’s ability to fund its obligations while improving the quality of life for Detroiters,” said Jay Rising, Chief Financial Officer, City of Detroit. 

**Revenue Estimating Conference Results ** 

The City presented FY2023 General Fund recurring revenues projected at $1.226 billion for the current fiscal year ending June 30, up $39.1 million (3.3%) from the previous FY2023 conference estimate in September 2022. The increase is driven by stronger anticipated income tax collections and utility users tax collections. In addition, the City is projecting $3.1 million in non-recurring revenues this year.  General Fund recurring revenues for FY2024, which begins July 1, are now forecasted at over $1.253 billion, an increase of $39.2 million (3.2%) from the previous FY2024 conference estimate in September 2022. The projected increase is driven by income taxes, as the local economy stabilizes and adjusts to a tight labor market. The conservative General Fund revenue forecasts for FY2025 through FY2027 show continued, but modest, revenue growth of around 2% per year on average, led by income tax growth.  

The estimates approved today will set the revenues for the City’s FY2024 Budget and FY2024 through FY2027 Four-Year Financial Plan. The voting conference principals are Jay B. Rising, the City’s Chief Financial Officer; Eric Bussis, Chief Economist, Director, Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis, Michigan Department of Treasury; and George A. Fulton, PhD, Director Emeritus, Research Professor Emeritus, Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE), Department of Economics, University of Michigan.  

Please see links of the recorded Revenue Estimating Conference and PDFs of slide presentations below. 

• February 2023 Revenue Conference - Detroit Economic Outlook Slides
• February 2023 Revenue Conference - Revenue Estimates Slides
• Link to Zoom recording of February Revenue Conference

To review past Revenue Estimating Conference Reports visit Financial Reports under Revenue Estimating Conference Reports section.

• Local economy showing resilience amid projected challenges at national level 
• Report says Detroit economy buoyed by demand for blue-collar jobs, risks remain 
• Projections show employment and wages for Detroiters climb every year
• City-led efforts attract good-paying jobs, extend opportunity to more Detroiters 

Detroit’s economy will continue growing at a steady pace, showing resilience post pandemic despite projections of a mild national recession, according to the Detroit Economic Outlook for 2022-2027 released this week by the University of Michigan.  

“We expect Detroit’s resilience in recovering from the pandemic to date to translate into continued growth – even amid a challenging national economy,” said Gabriel Ehrlich, director of U-M's Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics and lead author of the forecast. 

Detroit economy lifted by demand for blue-collar jobs, risks remain 

Overall, projections show that employment will “climb every year from 2023 to 2027” ending the forecast “well above pre-pandemic levels adding 2,200 jobs this year before accelerating to an average 2,700 jobs per year through 2027. Last year, Detroit gained 8,000 jobs, with blue-collar jobs continuing to lead the way, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 6,000 jobs. Continued growth in blue-collar jobs and recovery in the Leisure and Hospitality sector help offset recent losses and slower growth in the Financial Activities sector.  

While risks to the forecast remain, such as delays in construction projects and lasting effects from remote work, City-led efforts to provide good-paying jobs to Detroiters have built up resilience to withstand a downturn.  Further, the City is well prepared financially to withstand the revenue risks of a slowing economy because of strong fiscal management that has maintained balanced budgets and grown reserves, while improving the quality of life for Detroiters and meeting financial obligations to City retirees and employees. 

 City-led efforts attract good-paying jobs, extend opportunity to more Detroiters 

The City’s resilient economy is based largely on its ongoing success attracting good-paying jobs to Detroit.  In 2023, the city is expected to add another 1,200 jobs at the Amazon distribution center at the state fairgrounds and break ground on a new employment center at the site of the former AMC headquarters, which is expected to provide up to 400 new jobs. Lear’s new seating facility on the site of the former Cadillac Stamping Plant also is expected to reach full employment of at least 400 in 2023. 

Wages in Detroit are also projected to increase this year, according to the forecast report. Following a gain of 3.2% in 2022, wage gains are expected to reach 4.3% this year and return to 3% through the forecast. Wage growth is then expected to beat out inflation from 2024 and forward. The report also forecasts wage growth of Detroit residents to keep pace with wages at jobs located in the City over the forecast period. Average resident wages are expected to climb to $47,500 by 2027. 

Further, the U of M forecast “expects the city’s continued recovery over the coming years to draw workers back into the labor force.” As of February 6, there were 8,865 jobs available for those Detroiters looking for work. And if training is needed, the City will connect residents to training programs.  

Through programs like Jump Start, the City is ensuring more Detroiters will benefit from new jobs and wage growth. Jump Start is a major first-of-its-kind $100 million Scholarship program that’s designed to help long-term unemployed residents get reengaged in the job market through paid education and career/job training programs. Jump Start is expected to get 1,200 Detroiters back in the workforce with plans to reach more. 

“Despite projections of a mild national recession, the Detroit economy has proven to be more resilient today supported by multiple years of balanced budgets for the City post-bankruptcy. We will continue employing the administration’s growth and opportunity strategies to further sustain and grow the City’s economy and improve the quality of life for Detroiters,” said Jay Rising, Chief Financial Officer, City of Detroit. 

The forecast is prepared by the City of Detroit University Economic Analysis Partnership, which is a collaboration of economic researchers at the City, Wayne State University, Michigan State University, and the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) at the University of Michigan. 

Detroit’s economic outlook will be discussed at its next Revenue Estimating Conference at 1:00 p.m. Monday, February 13 in the 13th Floor Erma L. Henderson Auditorium.  

The public is invited to attend in person or virtually at https://cityofdetroit.zoom.us/j/87228238067.

Today, the Demolition Department announced its 3,000th property demolition milestone, powered by Proposal N, the City of Detroit’s bond-funded blight removal program. The program was approved by voters in 2020 and is making a significant impact in neighborhoods that once felt left behind. The department is on-track to demolish 8,000 blighted homes across the city.

"Thanks to voters approving Proposal N, our blight removal program is able to do what we could not under federal funding restrictions, which is to reach every neighborhood in the city," said Mayor Mike Duggan. "Days like today are important to let residents know that while we weren't able to reach their neighborhood until now, they were never forgotten. We're going to keep moving through the city removing the homes that can't be saved and preserving the ones that can until we have addressed every blighted vacant home."

To date, the Demolition Department has utilized $63 million in bond funding to demolish 3,000 properties and stabilize over 1,300 for sale. Post-demolition, vacant side lots are available for residents to purchase for $100 through the Detroit Land Bank Authority.

“We made a commitment to remove blight across the city, and we're delivering on that promise,” shared LaJuan Counts, Demolition Department Director. “Proposal N funds have allowed us to move more efficiently and create jobs for Detroit-based, minority-owned contractors but most importantly opportunities for residents of our great city.”

This morning, lifelong Detroiter Patricia Carter watched with great relief as one of the Demolition Department’s Detroit-based, minority-owned contractors, DMC Consultants, demolished and cleared a vacant home that has stood for years in the Oakman Boulevard Neighborhood.

“I’ve lived in this neighborhood for fifty-four years,” said Carter, who serves on the Oakman Boulevard Community Block Club. “I’ve seen what some of my neighbors have done with the vacant lots after the houses were knocked down – they’ve really dressed them up. I’m very happy to see more of the demolition around here.”